Aam Aadmi Party win in Delhi Elections

Making Sense of the Aam Aadmi Party Win in the Delhi Elections

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Last updated on: December 24, 2013 11:05 IST

The story of the Delhi assembly election was the Aam Aadmi Party’s stunning debut. Rediff.com’s data experts, using Bayesian Networks, have mined terrific insights from how the nation’s capital voted in the recent assembly elections. 

Our modelling shows pockets support for the AAP among the Internet savvy, TV viewers, white collar workers and educated voters. 

We present the findings: 

The results of the Delhi assembly elections have taken the nation by surprise.

The complete reversal of fortunes for the Congress party and the big gains made by the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Aam Aadmi Party once again proved that 'nothing is impossible' in Indian politics.

How did the AAP, in its first election, get such a large mandate?

What did the BJP do to succeed?

Where did the Congress go wrong?

These questions have been on everyone's mind since the results came out on December 8.

We bring to you yet another interesting application of Bayesian Networks.

This time, we built a mathematical model around the Delhi Elections 2013 to try and give you possible insights into what may have happened.

 

 We used Rediff's proprietary data for constituency-wise break-up of age, educational qualifications, TV viewership, Internet usage, English proficiency and job profiles.

The graphical model that you see above was built by Rediff data experts using probabilistic estimates from this data.

Each node represents one variable from this data and each arrow points to the direction of what causes what.

For example, the node which is right at the top and labelled ‘graduate’, indicates that the probability that ‘many’ (we will define this shortly) graduates exist in a Delhi assembly constituency is 64.28%.

The arrow pointing from the graduates node says that higher the number of graduates in a constituency, the more likely that there will be English language proficient people in that constituency, the more there will be white collar workers and the more there will be Internet users.

What we seek to explain is what variables favoured a particular party in the 2013 election. This can be quantitatively seen in the variable ‘PartySupport2013.’

As you can see from the chart above, we have chosen to explain this from variables such as the age distribution of voters, their television and Internet usage behaviour, the extent of their English proficiency and the extent of white collar workers in that constituency.

Since we are trying to model a real world scenario, there may be variables that we may have missed out for various reasons (the main one being unavailability of data about that variable).

We then classified these variables into easy-to-understand categories using plots and other mathematical functions like their means and standard deviations as described below:

Age: Classified into two categories ‘Mostly20to39’ and ‘Mostly40andAbove’.

If the percentage of 20 to 39 age groups was more than 60% in a constituency it was classified as ‘Mostly20to39’, otherwise ‘Mostly40andAbove’.

Graduate: Classified into two categories ‘Few’ and ‘Many’.

If the percentage of graduates + college students was more than 25% in a constituency we classified it as ‘Many’, otherwise we classified it as ‘Few’.

White Collar Workers: Classified into two categories ‘Few’ and ‘Many’.

If the total percentage of white collar (clerks + businesspeople + shop owners + executives + managers + entrepreneurs) in a constituency was greater than 23% we classified it as ‘Many’, otherwise we classified it as ‘Few’.

English Literate: Classified as ‘Few’ and ‘Many’.

If the percentage of people who could write English in a constituency was greater than 50% we classified it as ‘Many’, otherwise we classified it as ‘Few’.

TV Viewers: Classified as ‘Few’ and ‘Many’.

If the percentage of people who viewed television (Doordarshan, Satellite or Cable) in a typical week in a constituency was greater than 80% we classified it as ‘Many’, otherwise we classified it as ‘Few’.

Internet Users: Classified into ‘Few’ and ‘Many’.

If the percentage of people that used the Internet in a typical month in a constituency was more than 15% it was classified as ‘Many’, otherwise it was classified as ‘Few’.

Party Support 2013: No classification was done except some minor parties were classified as ‘Others’.

As a first example, let us see how a high proportion of Internet users in a constituency affected the election outcome.

As shown in the chart below, we select the ‘Few’ option in the node for Internet Users.

The node turns red in colour and the probabilities in the Party Support 2013 node changes.

For example, the party support for the AAP comes down from 40.56% to 31.02%; the BJP party support goes up from 42.65% to 46.47%, but note how the Congress party support jumps from 11.69% to 16.69%.

  

 Conversely, when we choose the ‘Many’ option in the Internet Users node (as shown in the chart below), the AAP party support jumps to 46.54% but the BJP and Congress share decline.

 

 This is a clear indication that in the 2013 Delhi assembly election, Internet savvy voters flocked en masse to the AAP.

The BJP had an almost equal effect on Internet savvy and non-Internet savvy voters.

The Congress does not seem to have Internet savvy voters among its supporters.

This probably means that the Congress did not sufficiently explain itself on Social Media as much as the BJP and AAP did.

This is in agreement with the results that we found in our Twitter analysis.

How did educated voters in Delhi vote in 2013? 

We get a sense of this when we choose the ‘Few’ option in the Graduates node in the graph below.

The AAP share declines to 25.86%; the BJP share rises to 50.33% while the Congress share jumps up to 17.41%.

 On the other hand when we chose the ‘Many’ option in the Graduates node, the AAP share jumps up to 48.74% while the BJP and Congress share plummets as shown in the chart below.

 

 This provides clear evidence that a majority of graduates voted overwhelmingly for the AAP.

How did voters with a proficiency in English vote?

We can check this by choosing, first the ‘Few’ option in the English Literate node.

The AAP share declines to 24.34% as shown below, while the BJP and Congress support shares increase.

 

 We next choose the ‘Many’ option in the English Literate node and see the jump upwards in the AAP’s support.

Clearly, English-proficient voters voted en masse for the AAP.

 

Which way did Delhi’s white collar workers’s votes go?

The chart below shows that when we chose ‘Few’ in the White Collar Workers node, the AAP share declines sharply to 17.62% but the BJP and Congress rise with the BJP sky rocketing to 56.05%

When we chose the ‘Many’ option (in the chart below) in the White Collar node, the AAP support share rockets to 52.54% while the BJP and Congress go down.

 

Clearly, the AAP was the party of choice for Delhi’s white collar workers.

The BJP also had a considerable influence on white collar voters, but had a much stronger influence on voters with blue collar jobs.

The Congress had a very small effect on voters with white collar jobs and had a better effect on voters with blue collar jobs.

Even in the constituencies of ‘Few’ white collar jobs, the BJP had a predominant effect as compared to the Congress.

How did intensity of TV watching affect voter choice?

When we chose the ‘Few’ option (chart below) the AAP’s support share goes down slightly to 34.59%, while the Congress share goes up slightly to 14.64%. The BJP remains almost constant.

 

When we chose the ‘Many’ option (chart below) the AAP’s support goes up slightly while the Congress support comes down slightly.

This suggests that Television did not affect the voting outcome one way or the other.

 

Did voters of a younger age flock to any particular party?

 

 

The two charts above lead to a counter-intuitive conclusion.

That voter age did not affect the outcome one way or the other.

There is almost no change in party support in 2013 for any party in the above two charts when we choose either of the two age options.

So far in our analysis we selected individual variables and studied the effect of each on the ultimate Party Support for 2013.

There is another type of Inference that a Bayesian Graphical Network is capable of doing which is called Evidential Inference.

In this we select a particular party in the Party Support 2013 node and see which variable played a part in that party’s seat outcome.

For example, if we select the AAP, as in the graph below, we can see that the presence of voters who are Graduates with high English Literacy, holding white collar jobs and who use the Internet extensively favours the AAP.

 

On the other hand when we choose the Congress option, as in the graph below, there is a shift away from this type of voter.

 

When we select the BJP (in the chart below) and conduct the same analysis we find that the distributions over ‘Few’ and ‘Many’ in English Literacy, White Collar Jobs, Internet Users and Graduates tend to become equal indicating that the BJP reached out to almost all the voters in Delhi.

Although the AAP had an edge in constituencies with voters who are graduates, were Internet savvy and held white collar jobs, the BJP was not far behind.

This probably explains why the BJP marginally scored over the AAP.

 

Credits: Constituency-level demographic information is from Rediff's proprietary data: the Graphical Bayesian Model used is thanks to Adnan Darwiche and his team at the Automatic Reasoning Group at UCLA

Arvind Kejriwal (born 16 August 1968) is an Indian social activist and politician. Born in Haryana, Kejriwal is a graduate of the Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, where he studied Mechanical Engineering. He is a former Indian Revenue Service (IRS) officer and former Joint Commissioner in the Income Tax Department. He is well-known for his role in drafting a proposed Jan Lokpal Bill and his efforts to bring and implement the Right to Information (RTI) act at grassroots level.
Kejriwal won the Ramon Magsaysay Award for Emergent Leadership in 2006 for his contribution to the enactment of the Right to Information Act and for his efforts to empower the poorest citizens of India. In 2006, after resigning from the IRS, he donated his Magsaysay award money as a corpus fund to found an NGO, Public Cause Research Foundation.^[1] In 2012, he launched the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), and defeated Sheila Dixit in the Delhi Legislative Assembly election, 2013.

Kejriwal was born in Hisar, Haryana, on 16 August 1968 in a Bania family^[2] to Gobind Ram Kejriwal and Gita Devi, a well-educated and financially well-off couple. He has a younger sister and brother. His father was an electrical engineer who graduated from the Birla Institute of Technology, Mesra, and whose work led to many changes in the family's residence. Kejriwal spent most of his childhood in north Indian towns such as Sonepat, Ghaziabad and Hisar. He was educated at Campus School in Hisar.^[3]
Kejriwal studied mechanical engineering at IIT Kharagpur and then from 1989 he worked for Tata Steel. He left that job in 1992, having previously taken leave of absence in order to study for civil service examinations,^[3] and spent some time in Kolkata, at the Ramakrishna Mission in North-East India and at Nehru Yuva Kendra.^[4]
Kejriwal joined the Indian Revenue Service later in 1995 after qualifying through the Civil Services Examination. In February 2006, he resigned from his position of Joint Commissioner in the Income Tax Department.^[5]
Kejriwal is married to Sunita, who is also an IRS officer and his batchmate from National Academy of Administration in Mussoorie. The couple have two children, a daughter and a son. Kejriwal is a vegetarian. He has been practicing Vipassana for many years.^[3]

Parivartan

In December 1999, while still in service with the Income Tax Department, he helped found a movement named Parivartan (which means "change"), focused on assisting citizens in navigating income tax, electricity and food ration matters in parts of Delhi. He believes "Change begins with small things".^[6] Kejriwal unearthed the fake Ration card scam in Delhi in 2008 through his movement parivartan.^[7][8]

Right to Information

Kejriwal has been using the Right to Information Act (RTI) in corruption cases in many government departments including the Income Tax Department, the Municipal Corporation of Delhi, the Public Distribution System (PDS), the Delhi Electricity Board and others.^[4]

Jan Lokpal Bill

Main article: Jan Lokpal Bill

Kejriwal was the civil society representative member of the committee constituted by the Government of India to draft a Jan Lokpal bill, following a campaign for introduction of such legislation that featured Anna Hazare. He had been arrested for his support of Hazare.^[9][10]

Political career

Kejriwal established the Aam Aadmi Party in November 2012. The party name — Aam Aadmi Party — reflects the phrase Aam Aadmi, or "common man", whose interests Kejriwal proposed to represent. The party was formally launched in Delhi on 26 November 2012.^[11] The party's first electoral test is the Delihi legislative assembly elections on 4 December 2013.^[12] He has also become one of the five most mentioned Indian politician on social networking sites such as Facebook and Twitter.^[13]
In the 2013 Delhi Legislative Assembly elections, Kejriwal defeated the three-time Delhi Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit from the New Delhi Assembly constituency.^[14]

Writing

Kejriwal's book, Swaraj, was published in 2012.^[15]

Awards

• 2004: Ashoka Fellow, Civic Engagement^[4]
• 2005: 'Satyendra K. Dubey Memorial Award', IIT Kanpur for his campaign for bringing transparency in Government^[16]
• 2006: Ramon Magsaysay Award for Emergent Leadership^[6]
• 2006: CNN-IBN, 'Indian of the Year' in Public Service^[17][18]
• 2009: Distinguished Alumnus Award, IIT Kharagpur for Eminent Leadership^[19]
• 2009: Awarded a grant and fellowship by the Association for India's Development.^[20]
• 2010: Policy Change Agent of the Year, The Economic Times Awards for Corporate Excellence along with Aruna Roy^[21]
• 2011: NDTV Indian of the Year along with Anna Hazare^[22]

Who will form government in Delhi? BJP or AAP?

Time of political manipulation lies ahead as no party has got the magic number of 36 to form the next government in Delhi.

NEW DELHI: Delhi on Sunday witnessed the sensational political debut of the Aam Aadmi Party that decimated many a big name in the Delhi assembly elections. Although it practically wiped out the Congress, which won only 8 seats, and halted the BJP's march to power (which won 31 seats as the single-largest party), AAP is not in a position to form a government in Delhi on its own.

The Bharatiya Janata Party faces the same problem. None of the parties has managed to touch the magic figure of 36 seats on the basis of which they can stake claim to form a stable government in the National Capital.

It now appears that either Delhi might have an unstable government, as mandate has been split between the AAP and the BJP, or the state might have to go to the polls again — sometime along with the general elections.

In such a scenario, Lt Governor Najeeb Jung has no other option left but to invite the BJP to form the government as the party won majority of the seats.

Even if Jung invites the BJP to form the state government, the party will face a hard time reaching the tally of 36. The main leaders of Aam Aadmi Party, including Arvind Kejriwal, have already declared that their party will not ally with the BJP or the Congress.

Conventional wisdom also says if a new party gets such a large number of seats in its first attempt, it is better for it to take on the role of Opposition to protect its credibility.

Now, the BJP is left with the choice of seeking support from Independent candidate and BJP rebel Rambir Shokeen, who has won from the Mundka constituency. Shokeen was denied a ticket by the BJP. Instead, the party fielded former chief minister Sahib Singh Verma’s brother Azad Singh.

Shokeen, who has won with a massive 52,564 votes against Singh’s 45,430, could prove crucial in the current scenario.

Another candidate whom the BJP could reach out to is Shoaib Iqbal of the JD(U).

However, Iqbal who is elected from the Matia Mahal constituency, has already declared that he would not support the BJP. Nevertheless, the four- term MLA who only recently joined the JD ( U), has been known to switch loyalty. Before joining the BJP’s former NDA ally, he was with Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti party.

Meanwhile, BJP's Delhi in-charge Nitin Gadkari said: 'We will form government if we get support. Otherwise, we would like to sit in the opposition.'

Indicating that the logjam may not be easy to resolve, Kejriwal said: "We are ready to sit in the opposition. We will never accept support from anyone."

Whoever now thinks of forming the government in Delhi will have to seek the support of one of the other two parties. However, with the AAP categorically stating that it will neither offer nor take support from anyone, there appears to be an impasse.

The BJP finished with 32 seats (31, plus one seat from its ally SAD), four short of a simple majority as the AAP turned to be the giant killer, bagging 28 seats. And the Congress bagged only eight.

Three scenarios

1. The BJP can always stake claim to form the government as Kejriwal has clearly said that the AAP will not destabilise the government but the BJP will remain on the edge it can be unseated by the AAP and the Congress anytime.

2. The weakened Congress however would be vulnerable to poaching attempts, but this may not be easy given that the anti-defection law stipulates a two-thirds strength for the breakaway group to escape disqualification. 

3. The other option is fresh elections. But with the AAP tasting success, the BJP will be jittery to opt for fresh poll as AAP's mass appeal can increase as it has been seen that the Kejriwal's party is a serious contender for power in Delhi. And there is no guarantee that in the fresh polls the BJP can win more seats than what it has got this assembly elections.

India declares five days of mourning for 'Gandhian' Mandela

The Indian national flag flies at half mast over the Indian Parliament as official mourning is declared for Nelson Mandela and both Houses of Parliament pay tribute to Mandela prior to adjournment, in New Delhi. Picture:

NEW DELHI - India on Friday declared five days of national mourning for former South African president Nelson Mandela, who was hailed as a "true Gandhian" and a "great friend" by the country's leaders.

 

The Indian flag will be flown at half mast across the country for five days and "there will be no official entertainment", a government statement said after a special meeting of the cabinet in New Delhi.

 

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said the country regarded Mandela as a "true Gandhian in spirit and ideal".

 

"In a world marked by division, his was an example of working for reconciliation and harmony and we are not likely to see another of his kind for a long time to come," Singh told a conference in televised remarks. 

 

Indian President Pranab Mukherjee called Mandela "a statesman, world leader and icon of inspiration of humanity".

 

"He was a great friend of India and his contribution for strengthening the close ties between our two countries will be always remembered," he said.

 

Indian independence hero Mahatma Gandhi had his political baptism in South Africa after arriving there in 1893, with his experience of racism in the country shaping his future political activism back home.

 

India was also the first country to sever trade relations with the apartheid regime in Pretoria back in the 1940s.

 

Gopalkrishna Gandhi, the grandson of Mahatma Gandhi, said the world had "lost a beam of light" with Mandela's death.

 

"Mandela could have become president for life but (he) wanted to be an agent of change and that is what he wanted to be remembered for," he told India's CNN-IBN news network.

 

Mandela died late Thursday at his Johannesburg home after a long battle against lung infection.

-AFP

The six names of Nelson Mandela

Johannesburg:  Though the world knew him as Nelson Mandela, South Africa's anti-apartheid hero had five other names, including "Tata".

Some of the monikers date from his childhood, while others reflect the respect bestowed on the 95-year-old the country's first black president.

At birth he was given the name Rolihlahla Mandela by his father, Nkosi Mphakanyiswa Gadla Henry, according to the Nelson Mandela Foundation.

In Xhosa, one of the official languages of South Africa, "Rolihlahla" means "pulling the branch of a tree." More commonly, it is said to mean "troublemaker".

The name "Nelson" first made an appearance when the young Mandela was at primary school. This name was given to him by his teacher on the first day of school in the village of Qunu.

But it is unclear why she chose that particular name, CNN reported.

It was the early 1920s and, at that time, it was customary to give African children English names to make them easier for British colonials to pronounce, the report said.

In South Africa, Mandela is most commonly referred to as Madiba, the name of the Thembu clan to which he belongs.

Madiba was the name of a Thembu chief who, in the 19th century, ruled over a region called the Transkei in the country's southeast.

Referring to Mandela as Madiba is a sign of endearment and respect, according to the Nelson Mandela Foundation.

Mandela is also referred to by many as simply "Tata," the Xhosa word for "father".

The Xhosa language also offers another term of endearment for Mandela. "Khulu" is the shortened word for "uBawomkhulu", which means "grandfather." The word also means "great, paramount, grand," the Foundation said.

At the age of 16, Mandela, like other Xhosa boys, was formally initiated into manhood through a traditional Xhosa ceremony. At the time, he was given the name of Dalibhunga, which means "creator or founder of the council" or "convenor of the dialogue," the Foundation said.

Mandela died at his home here today after a protracted illness.

Nelson Mandela

Bangladesh has declared a three-day national mourning period starting tomorrow to pay homage to South African leader Nelson Mandela.

"The government has declared a three-day national mourning showing respect to Mandela," Cabinet Secretary M Musharraf Hossain Bhuiyan was quoted as saying by the Daily Star newspaper.

The country's national flag would be flown at half-mast during the period. 


Politico reports: President Obama and first lady Michelle Obama will travel to South Africa next week for Nelson Mandela "memorial events," press secretary Jay Carney said in a statement.

The White House will offer more information as it's available, Carney added.A large memorial for Mandela is scheduled for December 10 in Johannesburg, while his state funeral will take place on Dec.ember 15 in his hometown of Qunu. 

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