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2. More focus needed on Sales, More Sales and keeping it growing continuously;
Both should go hand in hand and its not that one should be achieved and then focus should be made on the second.
In fact, personally, I focus more on Sale of TripleClicks as well as other ECA's products.
I am creating more collections and promoting them in my one way!
Other side, I intend promoting the Combi Offers available for Groceries through Transfer Buying. I am in the verge of placing orders for me and few of my friends for these items very shortly. I am just working on the type of products available vis a vis our monthly requirements.
It will help in 2 ways:
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2. ECAs selling these are available in my Region;
3. I need not spend much separately on purchase to gather VersaPoints;
4. Since my friends will also buy these, I will earn commission as well valuable VersaPoints;
If I keep repeating these every month, involving more of my friends, contacts, etc , I am confident of earning a very good income, probably a four figure income within the next 12-18 months.
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On the other hand, I am trying to develop my downline through advertisements, word of mouth, etc. While the results are not forthcoming rapidly, I do know that more patience and perseverance are required in order to succeed in this area. But, I have not given up! I keep changing my advertisement strategies and I am confident!

India evacuates 170 foreigners from Nepal

 Terrified Nepal patients want treatment in tents, not in hospital buildings:  People injured in the deadly earthquake in Nepal are now so traumatised with fear that they prefer receiving treatment in tents rather than inside hospitals after several buildings collapsed burying hundreds of victims.

Kedar Prasad Srivastav, 75, is to be operated upon for an abdomen surgery, but he prefers to get treated in the open ground outside the Kathmandu Medical College (KMC) for fear of tremors and aftershocks after Saturdays quake that devastated the Himalayan nation, killing over 4,300 people with more than 8,000 others injured.

When he felt the tremors, Srivastav got himself shifted outside. The fear of the quake is such that he prefers getting treated in the open ground, amid rain, cold and mosquitoes.

We have been asking patients to shift indoors, but they simply refuse because of the fear of the quake, said Dr Sajipta Panth, a gynaecologist at the KMC.

Initially, even the doctors were fearing to operate on patients inside the buildings.
What do we do? If we have to treat the patients then even we have to stay safe.
For the first two days we operated patients inside the hospital. Now, we have a makeshift mobile operation theatre erected in the open ground of the Nepal Armed Police Force, said Dr Manoj Shah, another gynaecologist at KMC.

Meanwhile, medical help has started pouring in with teams of doctors arriving from different parts of the world.

India has set up three mobile hospitals at Lagan Khel, some 17 kms from the capital and Seni Mangal.

We have despatched teams at Barpak and Sindupalchowk (the two most affected districts), said Col R K Yadava of the Indian Army Medical Corps who also also have paratroopers with them.

So, just in case if we are asked to go into the interiors then we can be para trooped. Our team is well equipped and can even erect a mobile operation theatre in case of an emergency, said Major Abid Aman.

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New for 2015: JMT Gateway!

January 1, 2015 by csi4admin

We’re excited to ring in the new year with a brand new Gateway website for our more than one million awesome affiliates around the world!
What makes our new “JMT” (Join My Team) Gateway special is that it is highly personalized for you.
Your JMT Gateway is a powerful, personalized invitation to prospects to join you in SFI.  It features your photo, your name, and your country.  Also, all of your SFI badges are proudly displayed below your photo!  And if you’ve been with SFI for at least 90 days, it also tells the prospect how long you’ve been an SFI affiliate.

Sections include:

• A personalized letter to your prospect, from you to them
• A list of reasons why they’ll love SFI
• Testimonials + a link to dozens more
• A “Powered by SFI” section that highlights TripleClicks, Pricebenders, and our Eager Zebra games division.

IMPORTANT TIPS:

1. Your photo is a KEY element of the page.  Hence, it’s very important that you use the best photo of yourself you can.  We use your standard SFI account photo.  You can upload a new or different account photo HERE.  And whatever you do, please don’t use the JMT Gateway if you don’t have an account photo in place.  Nobody wants to join the team of a faceless sponsor!
2. We also strongly suggest that you make sure your NAME is your actual first and last name (not a company name or other name–which we’ll be providing a special, separate place for soon).  If you do not, the letter to your prospect is going to read strangely and you will NOT make as good of as an impression as you could otherwise.  First impressions count!  Also use proper capitalization (only the first letter of your first and last names should be capitalized).  You may update your name HERE.
3. One of the ways you can impress your prospects with your JMT Gateway is by sporting the most prestigious badges possible.  To learn how you can earn more badges (and/or upgrade some of the ones you have), visit our Badges Gallery HERE.  By the way, some new badges are coming soon, so be watching for announcements about how to earn the new badges, too.

SPECIAL NOTES:

1. Will the new JMT Gateway work better than our standard Gateways?  We honestly don’t know, as there really was no way to properly test them.  Therefore, we would encourage everyone to ease into use of the JMT Gateway.  Consider converting only SOME of your advertising to the new JMT link…and then use key codes to track which is working best for you.  If they work well, you can then convert ALL of your ads.  And please use the SFI Forum to let your fellow SFI affiliates know the results that you are getting.
2. The next-to-last paragraph in the letter portion of the JMT Gateways includes the following text:

My #1 job in SFI is helping the affiliates that I sponsor become successful. When you join my team, know that in me you will have a committed partner and mentor, and that I stand ready to assist you in any way I can.

If you are not prepared to stand behind this statement and actively support the affiliates you sponsor, do not use the JMT Gateway!
Are your ready to view your new personalized JMT Gateway?  Go now to (with XXXX replaced by your SFI ID number):

http://www.joinmySFIteam.com/XXXX

One more thing: This is version 1.0 of the JMT Gateway.  We have some additional features to debut a little later.  We’d also love to hear your suggestions about possible other features YOU would like to see.

FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS:

Q: The JMT Gateway displays my SFI badges, but not my TripleClicks badges–which I’d like to also display.  How come?
We want to give you that choice…actually the choice on ALL of your badges–which you wish to display and which you do not.  A new Badge Manager needs to first be created, however, and that is a few weeks away.  Once it’s in place, you’ll be able to pick and choose exactly which badges to display not only on your JMT Gateway but at other SFI and TripleClicks areas too.
Q: Since it’s personalized webpage, why not allow me to create my own letter?
We’re considering that option.  Watch for announcements.
Q: Are there applications that might be better for using the JMT Gateway rather than other standard gateways?
We believe there are, yes, but that’s where testing needs to come in.  Generally speaking, however, the JMT Gateway might be best when you’ve already made contact and maybe already introduced them to SFI.  By referring such prospects to the JMT Gateway, you can now introduce YOURSELF and perhaps show your prospect SFI in a “different light.”  But again, TESTING is the only way to find out for sure.
Q: Having the badges on the JMT Gateway sounds like a good idea, but since most of the badges reference things and programs they’ve never heard of, will it really impress anyone?
It’s impossible to know. Everyone’s different of course.  We believe, however, that having a high Power Rank, being a Fast-Track Member, being a Forum Guru, being an E365 Champion or Finalist, and so on, IS going to make you stand out and cause prospects to want to join with you.  Most people want to join with winners!
Q: I’ve only been with SFI a short time, I don’t have many badges, etc.  Should I use it?
That’s totally up to you.  You can, of course, start using it anytime in the future when you feel it will work for you.

EA Status

If you are still building your TEAM and your GOAL is just to maintain your EA2 Status, here is a way to maintain your EA2 status for less than $20.

Note : Once you have at least 3 Active PSA who reach and are maintaining their EA2 status , we recommend placing a standing order to become a BRONZE TEAM LEADER to benefit from the matching VP that you will get from your Downlines .

FIRST MONTH OF USING THIS PLAN :

Required VP for EA2 : 1500 VP

DAILY ACTION :
Daily Task = 11VP/day x 30 = 330VP

MONTHLY ACTION :
Rate your Sponsor = 10VP
Set your monthly Goal = 5VP

WEEKLY ACTION :
Sending Team email = 30VP/wk x 4 = 120VP
Reviewing TC connect Page= 5VP x 4 = 20VP
Posting in Stream Post = 3VP x 4 = 12VP

TOTAL ACTION VP (DAILY, MONTHLY,WEEKLY) = 497 VP

To complete the 1500VP , you purchase 10 (1 TCredit ) from your TC Store.
Cost = 10 x $1.89 = $18.90
You will get 102VP/TCredit x 10 = 1020 VP
You will get 5MRP/TCredit x 10 = 50 MRP

TOTAL VP ( ACTION + SALES ) = 497VP + 1020VP = 1517VP
** You earned the 1500VP for your EA2 status.

ON SUCCEEDING MONTHS :

You will receive 10 FREE TCredits from SFI + the 10 TCredits you purchase you will have 20 TCredits in your TC Account.

Use 13 of your TCredits and participate in a "DOUBLE MRP" auction . You will get 130 MRP's, use the MRP's to buy 1 TCredit (cost=126MRP) so you can get 102VP .

Your VP for the month will be :

Daily, Weekly, Monthly action = 497VP

1TCredit purchased with MRP=102VP

Buy 9 TCredits @ $1.89/TCredit (total cost=$17.01) you will get 918VP

TOTAL VP for the month= 497+102+918 = 1517 VP (EA2 status)
Cost = $17.01

TIPS :
1. The more TCredits you have, the more MRP's you can convert, the more TCredit's your can purchase, the more VP you can get and the lesser your monthly cost . Participate in the Daily Grand Draw and T-Time contest to have a chance to get more FREE TCredits.

2. Teach your PSA to do this and you will get Direct commission once they purchase the TCredits . You can also use your commission to buy TCredits to maintain your EA2 status or to reach Team Leader Status.

2. Ask your PSA to teach their PSA to duplicate this so you will have an active TEAM of Affiliates . Then it is time for you to work in reaching your TEAM LEADER status to benefit from the matching VP from your active (EA2 & TL ) downlines.

THE BEST TOOL IN OUR BUSINESS IS "DUPLICATION" . WE SET A SYSTEM THAT OUR PSA CAN EASILY DUPLICATE AND THAT THEY CAN ALSO TEACH TO THEIR PSA. . . IF WE CAN DO THIS THEN WE ARE ON OUR WAY TO SUCCESS IN SFI. . .

New at the Forum: Profile Tab

December 12, 2014 by csi4admin

Today we’ve added to the SFI Forum another powerful new feature.  Click on the small tab with the head and shoulder icon and you’ll be able to view and browse:

• All of your posts
• All threads you’ve started
• All posts you’ve subscribed to
• All threads you’ve subscribed to
• All posts you’ve bookmarked

Also, if you’ve had any posts not get approved, they’ll also be listed under the “Unapproved” section with the reason for the non-approval.
SPECIAL TIP: Click on the name of any forum member’s post, and you’ll be able to view all of their posts, threads, and bookmarks!  Oh, and if you’re looking for the link to the Affiliate Snapshot…it’s now the member’s picture.  That is, if you want to view a forum member’s Affiliate Snapshot, just click on their photo!

'Cancelling the Kousar Nag yatra shows the state's brazen intolerance towards pluralism'

Kashmiri Pandits complain that the Jammu and Kashmir government has simply cowered to hardline sentiments and that the real reason for canceling the pilgrimage was not due to ecological concerns but because of religion. Upasna Pandey reports
The Jammu and Kashmir government’s decision to discontinue the Kousar Nag yatra in South Kashmir is snowballing into a much bigger controversy, threatening to derail plans to rehabilitate Kashmiri Pandits in the valley.
Kashmiri Pandits in the area and the world around are upset after the Omar Abdullah government ban on the yatra and labelling the area as an adventure spot rather than a pilgrimage ground. Irked at the government’s handling of the issue, some Kashmiri Pandits from America have even written a letter to Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Expressing complete lack of trust in the state government, Dr Romesh Raina, general secretary, All India Kashmiri Samaj, said, “There is a clear pattern to this. Before this, there was the anti-Amarnath yatra violence at Baltal where scores of free langars for yatris were torched and many yatris were injured. There was also the incident of illegal encroachment of land at TirathRajTemple at Mattan.”
Dr Raina added that it was a grave concern that hard line sentiments were ruling the government and also lamented the lack of strong governmance from the National Conference.
He adds that Kashmiri Pandits have been going to Kousar Nag yatra a month before the annual Amarnath yatra for many years, so to even call it a new piligrimage, as cited by a few people, is wrong. “We are deeply anguished by the poor commitment shown by the state government towards the rehabilitation process, which can jeopardize the centre’s efforts as a result, added Dr Raina.
However, Syed Ali Geelani, chairman of the All Parties Hurriyat Conference (Geelani) dismisses that the Kousar yatra has any historical context. “We have not about this Kousar Nag yatra and it is quite recent. I don’t understand the need to start new yatra destinations in the Valley.”
Explaining his opposition to the yatra, Geelani added, “Initially, the Amarnath yatra used to be a 15-day trip taken by small groups of Kashmiri pandits from across the country. Today, however, it has a shrine board, has acquired lots of land, and is being run by non-Kashmiris mostly. So a lot is being done in the name of a yatra for establishing political ground and these things do disturb the overall conditions in the Valley.”
However, the Kashmiri pandits are countering this view. They say that the issue is not ecological concerns as put forth by the state and the separatists but purely a case of the rise of fundamentalism and brazen intolerance towards the plural status of the state.
“Across the world, people from all faiths are allowed to freely congregate and practice their religion at spots they consider important. There is, of course, adverse impact on the overall ecology but it cannot be a reason to stop a religious practice,” said a Kashmiri Pandit who did not wish to be named.
“There is blatant deforestation across the Valley, in tourist hotspots such as Gulmarg. The DalLake is highly polluted. But, the government has taken no steps to regulate the flow of tourists or new hotels in the area. But, the same ecological reason is given when they (the government) wants to cancel a pilgrimage,” said Dr Ajay Chrungoo, president of Panun Kashmir.
Citing the historical and religious importance of Kousar Nag, ML Kaul, a retired professor and author of several books on the Valley says “The Kousar Nag pilgrim is mentioned in Nil Mat Puran, which is a 6th century text. In fact, Kousar Nag is actually called Kram saras, and it formed by melting of a glacier. As a practice, Kashmiri Pandits hold natural water springs in high reverence, and worship them as gift from God.”
He also dismissed the argument that there is ecological danger due to pilgrims going to Kousar Nag. “The water at Kausar Nag is ice cold and pilgrims do not use it for bathing or any other purpose. It is only a place of worship so there is no question of polluting the spring water,” added Prof Kaul. 
Meanwhile, the state government has remained mum on the issue. When contacted for a comment, officials Sources refused to comment, adding that the Home Commissioner has been authorised to speak on this, and the National Conference party would not like to comment as “it is a sensitive matter”.
And with the assembly elections just around the corner, the already battered National Conference can’t afford another controversy on their hands.
Image: Protesters clash with the police in Srinagar over the Kousar Nag Yatra. The area has witnessed violence in the past few days over the issue. Photograph: Umar Ganie/Rediff.com

The Indian Spring: Lessons for the world

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December 30, 2013 16:13 IST

The Indian Spring represented by Anna Hazare's anti-corruption campaign, which has culminated in the Aam Aadmi Party's impressive electoral debut in New Delhi, began around the same time as the Arab Spring in 2011 but they led to different outcomes in India and the Arab world, says Ramesh Ramachandran.
On December 17, as Tunisians observed the third anniversary of the self-immolation of a 26-year-old street vendor Mohd Bouazizi in Sidi Bouzid that sparked protests in their country and triggered a wave of similar uprisings across north Africa and west Asia, people of New Delhi broke out into celebrations for the second time in less than 10 days.
A rank outsider, Arvind Kejriwal, 45, had just announced a referendum of sorts to ascertain the people’s wishes on whether his Aam Aadmi Party should take the lead for forming a government or not, after the fledgling party made a historic debut in the assembly elections winning 28 seats in the 70-member house and coming second behind the Bharatiya Janata Party and its allies (32) but far ahead of the Congress’s tally of eight seats. Less than a week later, Kejriwal had staked claim to form the government, bringing to a successful culmination an unprecedented experiment in Indian democracy and bringing cheer to ordinary citizens who had had enough of the corruption and inflation that had peaked of late.
The contrast between Sidi Bouzid, a town 260 kilometres southwest of capital Tunis, and Delhi located 6,000-odd km away, could not have been starker. Three years after the first stirrings of the Arab Spring, Tunisia -- much like the rest of the Arab world -- is still coming to terms with the contagion that was unleashed on an unsuspecting society and government alike.
But the Indian version of the Arab Spring that began with a septuagenarian anti-corruption crusader Anna Hazare’s fast at Jantar Mantar in Delhi on April 5, 2011 can draw satisfaction from the many successes it has notched up on the way. There is a sense of accomplishment in the air. The spontaneous public movement that captured the imagination of men and women, young and old, in cities and towns across much of India has finally paid dividends.
Not only does India today have a new Lokpal Bill that provides for a nationwide anti-corruption ombudsman, Hazare’s one-time protege Kejriwal has turned a people’s movement for good governance, transparency and accountability into a political party with a remarkable felicity of democratic expression.
That this was achieved without any blood-letting is a tribute to the virtues of democracy in general and the sagacity and maturity of the Indian voter in particular. Compare this with the less than two lakh people killed in the Arab Spring, including, but not limited to, 300 in Tunisia, 1,700 in Egypt, 2,000 in Yemen, 25,000 in Libya, 1.2 lakh in Syria and over 100 in Bahrain, all of which are yet nowhere close to overcoming the challenges such as corruption, unemployment, inflation and inequality that bedevils Sidi Bouzid as much as it does Chandni Chowk. The events that unfolded in those countries brought home the tragic consequences of choosing the bullet over the ballot.
The phenomenon sweeping across much of the Arab world did not leave democratic societies such as the United States, where the Occupy Wall Street movement gained traction, or India, untouched. No country was immune from its reach. Social media ensured that the word spread farther and anger travelled faster.
It sprouted wherever it found a ground made fertile by mis-governance. It spared neither the dictator nor the democrat. Five governments were overthrown, including two in Egypt, just as the ruling Congress party was ousted from power in Delhi but, unlike India and the US, the levels of disenchantment continue to remain high in the democracy-deficit countries in north Africa and west Asia.
The prevailing sentiment in Tunisia, which has seen changes wrought by the Arab Spring, is that people’s lives and their economic situation has improved only marginally but it is not likely to improve any further in the immediate future. Tunisia is likely to witness the approval of a new constitution and the holding of parliamentary elections in 2014.
In a recent study conducted by researchers from the University of Michigan Institute for Social Research and the University of Maryland in the United States, more than 60 per cent of the 3,000 Tunisian adults surveyed said that they are not happy with the current political leadership and 86 per cent said that corruption is common. The situation is worse in Egypt, which increasingly resembles a police state, or, Libya, where militias run amok, throwing the country into further instability.
In Yemen, attempts are still being made for a national dialogue and reconciliation involving multiple stakeholders. “It is clear that the process of Arab transformation will need decades to mature and that its success is by no means guaranteed,” says Marwan Muasher, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the oldest international affairs think tank in the United States. Muasher’s prognosis for some of the countries affected by the Arab Spring is not encouraging.
According to him, Egypt, which can be expected to hold a referendum on a new constitution in addition to presidential and parliamentary elections in 2014, “is not out of the woods yet.” He sounds a warning for the Arab monarchies who have not succeeded in tackling the underlying political, economic, and social challenges their nations face.
“Jordan will continue to feel that it has successfully ridden the wave of Arab transitions without seriously addressing some of the key economic and political challenges facing the country. And it will probably get away with it, at least for now,” notes Muasher, who served as Jordan’s deputy prime minister from 2004 to 2005 and foreign minister from 2002 to 2004.
At the same time, the Aam Aadmi Party’s ascension to the front and centre of the political landscape and discourse is instructive for a proud democracy such as India. We are seeing Kejriwal’s fourth avatar, this time as a politician, after the engineer-turned-bureaucrat quit government service to launch a non-government organisation. He was in every sense of the word an antithesis to the reticent and self-effacing Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who for many had come to symbolise some if not everything that was wrong with the government and governance.
By any reckoning, the recently-concluded elections in Delhi that catapulted the Aam Aadmi Party to centre-stage had to be among the most secular electoral contests in recent memory because it was fought on the twin issues of corruption and good governance, and these are as secular an issue as secular gets. The usual considerations of caste, sect or religion were trumped by the near universal outrage against corruption.
Contrast this with many of the countries affected by the Arab Spring which descended into sectarianism, majoritarianism or plain terrorism; where people still yearn for the rule of law and many of the personal freedoms and human rights that many around the world take for granted. The Indian Spring also took under its wing issues other than corruption, such as crimes against women. The common man was once again at the forefront of the apolitical, secular protests following the December 16, 2012 gang-rape of a young woman in Delhi.
The Indian Street, similar to the Arab Street, had well and truly begun to take shape. The unprecedented outrage forced Parliament to pass the Criminal Law (Amendment) Bill to tighten the legal framework against rape. Women have found the voice to assert themselves like never before. It has led to the arrest of a magazine editor on charges of rape and a retired Supreme Court judge finds himself at the centre of a row over the alleged sexual harassment of a law intern.
Having said that, if the groundswell of opinion in favour of the Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi extends to even some of the other states of Indian union and/or the mandate decisively shifts away from the two blocs led by the Congress and the BJP to regional parties, then the 2014 parliamentary elections could throw up a more representative government bringing in its wake certain implications for the economic and foreign policies of India. Be it 51 per cent foreign direct investment in multi-brand retail; policies vis-à-vis Pakistan, Bangladesh or Sri Lanka; National Counter Terrorism Centre; or setting up of new nuclear power plants, what cannot be overstated is that devolution of economic or foreign policies to more stakeholders than what is currently assumed should not be entirely unwelcome.
In a federal structure such as India’s, foreign policy in particular cannot be practised in a vacuum or in isolation or without consultations with all stakeholders concerned, including, but not limited to, the states, particularly those that share contiguous borders with neighbouring countries and/or share ethnic, linguistic, cultural or geographical affinities with them.
A foreign policy drawn up in the corridors of the South Block in New Delhi may have served India well in all these decades but contemporary realities dictate that in a federal set-up and in an era of coalition governments the views of the states are factored in at the time of formulation of a foreign policy.
The democratisation of policy-making and the salience of the states in shaping it cannot be continued to be treated as an exception; and the sooner New Delhi gets used to executing its foreign and domestic policies in a coalition with sometimes competing political interests, the better it will be for all the stakeholders concerned.
At the time of writing, protests reminiscent of the Arab Spring are happening in Thailand, where at least four have died so far, and Ukraine. The international community could draw the right lessons from the Indian Spring, which spawned the rise of the Aam Aadmi Party. It has stirred even a 128-year-old party such as the Congress from its complacency and put others on notice. The three-time chief minister of Delhi, who had derisively asked “Who is Arvind Kejriwal? What is [Aam Aadmi Party]?” on election day, got her answer four days later when the votes were counted and how: Her party had been trounced and she herself had lost the election from her constituency. All of which can only mean one thing for political parties and governments everywhere: Thou shalt not mistreat the common man.
Ramesh Ramachandran is a Delhi-based journalist.

Ramesh Ramachandran

Related News: Aam Aadmi Party, Sidi Bouzid, New Delhi, Kejriwal, India

Aam Aadmi Party win in Delhi Elections

Making Sense of the Aam Aadmi Party Win in the Delhi Elections

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Last updated on: December 24, 2013 11:05 IST

The story of the Delhi assembly election was the Aam Aadmi Party’s stunning debut. Rediff.com’s data experts, using Bayesian Networks, have mined terrific insights from how the nation’s capital voted in the recent assembly elections. 

Our modelling shows pockets support for the AAP among the Internet savvy, TV viewers, white collar workers and educated voters. 

We present the findings: 

The results of the Delhi assembly elections have taken the nation by surprise.

The complete reversal of fortunes for the Congress party and the big gains made by the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Aam Aadmi Party once again proved that 'nothing is impossible' in Indian politics.

How did the AAP, in its first election, get such a large mandate?

What did the BJP do to succeed?

Where did the Congress go wrong?

These questions have been on everyone's mind since the results came out on December 8.

We bring to you yet another interesting application of Bayesian Networks.

This time, we built a mathematical model around the Delhi Elections 2013 to try and give you possible insights into what may have happened.

 

 We used Rediff's proprietary data for constituency-wise break-up of age, educational qualifications, TV viewership, Internet usage, English proficiency and job profiles.

The graphical model that you see above was built by Rediff data experts using probabilistic estimates from this data.

Each node represents one variable from this data and each arrow points to the direction of what causes what.

For example, the node which is right at the top and labelled ‘graduate’, indicates that the probability that ‘many’ (we will define this shortly) graduates exist in a Delhi assembly constituency is 64.28%.

The arrow pointing from the graduates node says that higher the number of graduates in a constituency, the more likely that there will be English language proficient people in that constituency, the more there will be white collar workers and the more there will be Internet users.

What we seek to explain is what variables favoured a particular party in the 2013 election. This can be quantitatively seen in the variable ‘PartySupport2013.’

As you can see from the chart above, we have chosen to explain this from variables such as the age distribution of voters, their television and Internet usage behaviour, the extent of their English proficiency and the extent of white collar workers in that constituency.

Since we are trying to model a real world scenario, there may be variables that we may have missed out for various reasons (the main one being unavailability of data about that variable).

We then classified these variables into easy-to-understand categories using plots and other mathematical functions like their means and standard deviations as described below:

Age: Classified into two categories ‘Mostly20to39’ and ‘Mostly40andAbove’.

If the percentage of 20 to 39 age groups was more than 60% in a constituency it was classified as ‘Mostly20to39’, otherwise ‘Mostly40andAbove’.

Graduate: Classified into two categories ‘Few’ and ‘Many’.

If the percentage of graduates + college students was more than 25% in a constituency we classified it as ‘Many’, otherwise we classified it as ‘Few’.

White Collar Workers: Classified into two categories ‘Few’ and ‘Many’.

If the total percentage of white collar (clerks + businesspeople + shop owners + executives + managers + entrepreneurs) in a constituency was greater than 23% we classified it as ‘Many’, otherwise we classified it as ‘Few’.

English Literate: Classified as ‘Few’ and ‘Many’.

If the percentage of people who could write English in a constituency was greater than 50% we classified it as ‘Many’, otherwise we classified it as ‘Few’.

TV Viewers: Classified as ‘Few’ and ‘Many’.

If the percentage of people who viewed television (Doordarshan, Satellite or Cable) in a typical week in a constituency was greater than 80% we classified it as ‘Many’, otherwise we classified it as ‘Few’.

Internet Users: Classified into ‘Few’ and ‘Many’.

If the percentage of people that used the Internet in a typical month in a constituency was more than 15% it was classified as ‘Many’, otherwise it was classified as ‘Few’.

Party Support 2013: No classification was done except some minor parties were classified as ‘Others’.

As a first example, let us see how a high proportion of Internet users in a constituency affected the election outcome.

As shown in the chart below, we select the ‘Few’ option in the node for Internet Users.

The node turns red in colour and the probabilities in the Party Support 2013 node changes.

For example, the party support for the AAP comes down from 40.56% to 31.02%; the BJP party support goes up from 42.65% to 46.47%, but note how the Congress party support jumps from 11.69% to 16.69%.

  

 Conversely, when we choose the ‘Many’ option in the Internet Users node (as shown in the chart below), the AAP party support jumps to 46.54% but the BJP and Congress share decline.

 

 This is a clear indication that in the 2013 Delhi assembly election, Internet savvy voters flocked en masse to the AAP.

The BJP had an almost equal effect on Internet savvy and non-Internet savvy voters.

The Congress does not seem to have Internet savvy voters among its supporters.

This probably means that the Congress did not sufficiently explain itself on Social Media as much as the BJP and AAP did.

This is in agreement with the results that we found in our Twitter analysis.

How did educated voters in Delhi vote in 2013? 

We get a sense of this when we choose the ‘Few’ option in the Graduates node in the graph below.

The AAP share declines to 25.86%; the BJP share rises to 50.33% while the Congress share jumps up to 17.41%.

 On the other hand when we chose the ‘Many’ option in the Graduates node, the AAP share jumps up to 48.74% while the BJP and Congress share plummets as shown in the chart below.

 

 This provides clear evidence that a majority of graduates voted overwhelmingly for the AAP.

How did voters with a proficiency in English vote?

We can check this by choosing, first the ‘Few’ option in the English Literate node.

The AAP share declines to 24.34% as shown below, while the BJP and Congress support shares increase.

 

 We next choose the ‘Many’ option in the English Literate node and see the jump upwards in the AAP’s support.

Clearly, English-proficient voters voted en masse for the AAP.

 

Which way did Delhi’s white collar workers’s votes go?

The chart below shows that when we chose ‘Few’ in the White Collar Workers node, the AAP share declines sharply to 17.62% but the BJP and Congress rise with the BJP sky rocketing to 56.05%

When we chose the ‘Many’ option (in the chart below) in the White Collar node, the AAP support share rockets to 52.54% while the BJP and Congress go down.

 

Clearly, the AAP was the party of choice for Delhi’s white collar workers.

The BJP also had a considerable influence on white collar voters, but had a much stronger influence on voters with blue collar jobs.

The Congress had a very small effect on voters with white collar jobs and had a better effect on voters with blue collar jobs.

Even in the constituencies of ‘Few’ white collar jobs, the BJP had a predominant effect as compared to the Congress.

How did intensity of TV watching affect voter choice?

When we chose the ‘Few’ option (chart below) the AAP’s support share goes down slightly to 34.59%, while the Congress share goes up slightly to 14.64%. The BJP remains almost constant.

 

When we chose the ‘Many’ option (chart below) the AAP’s support goes up slightly while the Congress support comes down slightly.

This suggests that Television did not affect the voting outcome one way or the other.

 

Did voters of a younger age flock to any particular party?

 

 

The two charts above lead to a counter-intuitive conclusion.

That voter age did not affect the outcome one way or the other.

There is almost no change in party support in 2013 for any party in the above two charts when we choose either of the two age options.

So far in our analysis we selected individual variables and studied the effect of each on the ultimate Party Support for 2013.

There is another type of Inference that a Bayesian Graphical Network is capable of doing which is called Evidential Inference.

In this we select a particular party in the Party Support 2013 node and see which variable played a part in that party’s seat outcome.

For example, if we select the AAP, as in the graph below, we can see that the presence of voters who are Graduates with high English Literacy, holding white collar jobs and who use the Internet extensively favours the AAP.

 

On the other hand when we choose the Congress option, as in the graph below, there is a shift away from this type of voter.

 

When we select the BJP (in the chart below) and conduct the same analysis we find that the distributions over ‘Few’ and ‘Many’ in English Literacy, White Collar Jobs, Internet Users and Graduates tend to become equal indicating that the BJP reached out to almost all the voters in Delhi.

Although the AAP had an edge in constituencies with voters who are graduates, were Internet savvy and held white collar jobs, the BJP was not far behind.

This probably explains why the BJP marginally scored over the AAP.

 

Credits: Constituency-level demographic information is from Rediff's proprietary data: the Graphical Bayesian Model used is thanks to Adnan Darwiche and his team at the Automatic Reasoning Group at UCLA

Arvind Kejriwal (born 16 August 1968) is an Indian social activist and politician. Born in Haryana, Kejriwal is a graduate of the Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, where he studied Mechanical Engineering. He is a former Indian Revenue Service (IRS) officer and former Joint Commissioner in the Income Tax Department. He is well-known for his role in drafting a proposed Jan Lokpal Bill and his efforts to bring and implement the Right to Information (RTI) act at grassroots level.
Kejriwal won the Ramon Magsaysay Award for Emergent Leadership in 2006 for his contribution to the enactment of the Right to Information Act and for his efforts to empower the poorest citizens of India. In 2006, after resigning from the IRS, he donated his Magsaysay award money as a corpus fund to found an NGO, Public Cause Research Foundation.^[1] In 2012, he launched the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), and defeated Sheila Dixit in the Delhi Legislative Assembly election, 2013.

Kejriwal was born in Hisar, Haryana, on 16 August 1968 in a Bania family^[2] to Gobind Ram Kejriwal and Gita Devi, a well-educated and financially well-off couple. He has a younger sister and brother. His father was an electrical engineer who graduated from the Birla Institute of Technology, Mesra, and whose work led to many changes in the family's residence. Kejriwal spent most of his childhood in north Indian towns such as Sonepat, Ghaziabad and Hisar. He was educated at Campus School in Hisar.^[3]
Kejriwal studied mechanical engineering at IIT Kharagpur and then from 1989 he worked for Tata Steel. He left that job in 1992, having previously taken leave of absence in order to study for civil service examinations,^[3] and spent some time in Kolkata, at the Ramakrishna Mission in North-East India and at Nehru Yuva Kendra.^[4]
Kejriwal joined the Indian Revenue Service later in 1995 after qualifying through the Civil Services Examination. In February 2006, he resigned from his position of Joint Commissioner in the Income Tax Department.^[5]
Kejriwal is married to Sunita, who is also an IRS officer and his batchmate from National Academy of Administration in Mussoorie. The couple have two children, a daughter and a son. Kejriwal is a vegetarian. He has been practicing Vipassana for many years.^[3]

Parivartan

In December 1999, while still in service with the Income Tax Department, he helped found a movement named Parivartan (which means "change"), focused on assisting citizens in navigating income tax, electricity and food ration matters in parts of Delhi. He believes "Change begins with small things".^[6] Kejriwal unearthed the fake Ration card scam in Delhi in 2008 through his movement parivartan.^[7][8]

Right to Information

Kejriwal has been using the Right to Information Act (RTI) in corruption cases in many government departments including the Income Tax Department, the Municipal Corporation of Delhi, the Public Distribution System (PDS), the Delhi Electricity Board and others.^[4]

Jan Lokpal Bill

Main article: Jan Lokpal Bill

Kejriwal was the civil society representative member of the committee constituted by the Government of India to draft a Jan Lokpal bill, following a campaign for introduction of such legislation that featured Anna Hazare. He had been arrested for his support of Hazare.^[9][10]

Political career

Kejriwal established the Aam Aadmi Party in November 2012. The party name — Aam Aadmi Party — reflects the phrase Aam Aadmi, or "common man", whose interests Kejriwal proposed to represent. The party was formally launched in Delhi on 26 November 2012.^[11] The party's first electoral test is the Delihi legislative assembly elections on 4 December 2013.^[12] He has also become one of the five most mentioned Indian politician on social networking sites such as Facebook and Twitter.^[13]
In the 2013 Delhi Legislative Assembly elections, Kejriwal defeated the three-time Delhi Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit from the New Delhi Assembly constituency.^[14]

Writing

Kejriwal's book, Swaraj, was published in 2012.^[15]

Awards

• 2004: Ashoka Fellow, Civic Engagement^[4]
• 2005: 'Satyendra K. Dubey Memorial Award', IIT Kanpur for his campaign for bringing transparency in Government^[16]
• 2006: Ramon Magsaysay Award for Emergent Leadership^[6]
• 2006: CNN-IBN, 'Indian of the Year' in Public Service^[17][18]
• 2009: Distinguished Alumnus Award, IIT Kharagpur for Eminent Leadership^[19]
• 2009: Awarded a grant and fellowship by the Association for India's Development.^[20]
• 2010: Policy Change Agent of the Year, The Economic Times Awards for Corporate Excellence along with Aruna Roy^[21]
• 2011: NDTV Indian of the Year along with Anna Hazare^[22]